Monday, July 11, 2016

Checking in on Conforto

About a month ago, I wrote about how the Mets would be wise to send down their struggling young star, Michael Conforto, to the minor leagues. Apparently, the Mets are an avid reader of my blog, as they optioned Conforto to AAA Las Vegas on June 25.

Before being sent down, Conforto was in the midst of an unbelievably bad slump, hitting just .130 from May 1 to June 25. This was a far cry from the superstar potential that he flashed in late 2015 and in April of 2016.



Since being sent down, Conforto has appeared in 13 games for the Las Vegas 51s. In 57 at bats, he is hitting .340/.411/.431 with 3 home runs. These are certainly good numbers, but they must be looked at with the caveat that Las Vegas is a very friendly hitting environment that tends to produce inflated offensive numbers. Players that put up huge numbers in Las Vegas don't necessarily succeed when they get up to the major leagues. Look no further than Ty Kelly this year. Kelly has hit an absurd .359 in Las Vegas this year. However, when he got called up to the Mets, he hit only .148.


With the Mets offense continuing to struggle, there are already calls to bring Conforto back to the major leagues. However, I think that would be a disastrous move by the Mets. Despite his struggles this year, Conforto is still a major part of the team's future, and the team must be patient with him. Conforto needs more than 57 in the minor leagues to fix the problems that popped up in May and June.

The goal here is for Conforto to be called up to the majors permanently. As much as the team needs his help in the short term, they need to make absolutely sure that the issues that were plaguing him this year never pop up again. In Conforto's defense, he seems to have have corrected these issues in AAA so far.

The biggest problem with Conforto this year was that he seemed to completely abandon the plate discipline that made him so successful early in his career. For example, during his brutal slump this year, Conforto struck out 48 times while walking only 13 times. He's been doing much better in this department so far in Las Vegas, walking 6 times as opposed to only 13 strikeouts.

Another major problem this year was that Conforto was pulling everything he was seeing during his slump. This resulted in teams playing defensive shifts on him on the right side of the field, making it nearly impossible for him to get a hit. As a left-handed hitter, Conforto would find much more success if he spread the ball around the field, especially if he could hit balls to left field consistently. This would allow defenses to play him more honestly, which would hopefully result in more hits. Conforto has shown the ability to do this in the past, and apparently has been doing so in Las Vegas.

According to Las Vegas manager Wally Backman, Conforto has been using the whole field with consistency recently. He referenced a home run that Conforto hit on Saturday that went to the opposite field. Here is a video of the home run:

This is a very good sign, as opposite field power is what made Conforto such a valuable commodity in the first place.

While it is clear that Conforto is doing everything he needs to do in Las Vegas, the fact of the matter is that 2 weeks in the minor leagues is not enough time to earn a promotion back to the major leagues. It is easy to forget how bad Conforto looked for the Mets this year, and I don't think the issues that plagued him can be fixed in 2 weeks.

Conforto needs more time in the minors to make sure that his next call to the major leagues will be his last call to the major leagues. Conforto's future is still as bright as it was 3 months ago, but the Mets cannot afford to call him up before he's ready and shatter his confidence again. 

Despite the fact that fans and the media are already talking about promoting him, I don't the promotion of Conforto should even be considered until August 1.By then, he will have about 6 weeks in the minor leagues and hopefully would have completed the necessary adjustments to make him a successful major leaguer again, Although the Mets need more offense right now, it is more important to make sure that Michael Conforto is completely fixed. This is not a time for half measures. 

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