Tuesday, June 14, 2016

What Should the Mets do With Michael Conforto?

On November 1st, 2015, during Game 4 of the World Series,  Michael Conforto became the youngest player (22 years old) since 1996 to hit two home runs in a World Series game. He became the youngest left-handed hitter to accomplish that feat since Tony Kubek in 1957. On national television, Conforto showed the country what Mets fans had known for months: he was one of the best younger hitters in baseball. That nigh capped off a spectacular rookie season for Conforto, where he hit .270/.335/.451 with 9 home runs and 26 runs batted in despite only playing in 56 games. He did all of this despite being only 22, and being only a year removed from playing college baseball. Baseball writers all around the country were calling him a future star, if he wasn't one already.


Fast forward to May 1st, 2016, when Conforto had just come off a dominant month of April. In 74 at-bats, Conforo batted .365/.442/.676, with four home runs, 18 runs batted in, and 9 walks. Very impressive numbers for any player, especially one in his first full major league season. He was so good. he was in the conversation to be starting in the All-Star game in July. After starting the season batting 6th in the batting order, he had been moved up to 3rd (where the best hitter usually bats). He was talked about as not only the best player on the Mets, but possibly as one of the best players in the National League. The question was no longer whether or not he would be a great player, the question was how great of a player he was going to be.

Fast forward one more time to today, June 14th. Conforto is now batting .233/.304/.451. Over the last 6 weeks, he has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. For the month of May, he hit an anemic .169/.242/.349 with only 4 runs batted in. So far in the month of June, he's doing even worse, hitting .111/.154/.229, and has already struck out 13 times. Simply put: Conforto has gone from being very, very good to being very,very bad. His poor play has contributed to the Mets scoring the 3rd fewest runs in baseball, despite having one of the best pitching staffs in the league, Conforto's struggles has put the Mets in a very difficult situation. At 23 years old, Conforto has not simply lost his ability to play baseball. However, he has been struggling for a long enough period where it is time for the Mets and their fans to be worried.

The question now is what the Mets are going to do with Conforto. They essentially only have two options. They could choose to continue to play him everyday and hope that he regains his form or they could choose to send him to their AAA minor league team in Las Vegas, where he could work on improving while being away from the constant scrutiny of the New York media.

It is easy to rationalize both options that the Mets are weighing right now. It would be a very difficult decision to send Conforto to the minor leagues, as it would surely cause embarrassment to a player who 6 weeks ago was considered to be one of the best young players in the league. There is also no doubt that the Mets need Conforto in the starting lineup. Despite having arguably the best pitching staff in baseball, the Mets have a record of only 34-28.The Mets have scored the 3rd fewest runs in baseball and have the 2nd-least amount of hits in the league. This is mainly due to the team experiencing an uncommon amount of injuries, but the struggles of Conforto have only made the situation worse. It is argued by many that the Mets have no other option than to keep Conforto in the lineup every day and hope that he begins to improve, as the team cannot win without him.

While it is true that the Mets need Conforto to play well in order to win games consistently, the simple fact of the matter is that he is currently hurting the team more than he is helping. The best course of action for him and the team is for Conforto to go to the minor leagues to regain his confidence. Conforto has not just been struggling over the last few weeks, he's been absolutely horrendous. The Mets need to make sure that this slump does not turn into something that could alter his entire career. It is true that the Mets need Conforto to play well in order to win, but it has become clear that Conforto needs to be fixed in order to play well again. That fixing should occur in Las Vegas, where he would be away from the pressure of producing in New York City.

The Mets have had success with this method in the past. From 2010-2012, Ike Davis was a very good, young player for the Mets. Yet in 2013, Davis was in an almost identical situation as Conforto. Despite being a previously successful player, Davis started 2013 by batting .160 in April and .165 in May. His struggles forced the team to send him down to Las Vegas, where he hit .293 with 7 home runs in 21 games. After playing well in Las Vegas, he was called back up by the Mets and played very well, hitting .267 for the rest of the season with a 152 wRC+ (which means that he produced 52% better than the average MLB 1st baseman). 

Sending Ike Davis down to the minor leagues helped him return to being a good major league player, there is no reason why the same thing should not happen to Conforto. Although sending him down would be a difficult decision to make, it is also the right decision to make. Sending him down now would hopefully allow him to return in a few weeks, preferably as his old, confident self. The Mets want to win games this year, and they also want Conforto to have a long and successful career for them. The best course of action to make sure that happens is to send Conforto to the minor leagues. Its whats best for him and whats best for the team. 






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