Who Should Start for the National League in the All-Star Game?

Tonight, the rosters for the 2016 MLB All-Star Game will be unveiled. The game will be played on July 12th, and before then the managers of each league will have to announce who the starting pitcher will be. For American League manager Ned Yost, the choice is widely expected to be Chris Sale of the Chicago White Sox, who has easily been the best pitcher in the American League this year. 

For National League manager Terry Collins, the decision is much more difficult than it appeared to be last week. The National League is home to the greatest pitcher of his generation: Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has been the best pitcher in baseball for years now and was well on his way to starting the All Star Game (again) this year before landing on the disable list last week with a herniated disk. Now, there is no clear-cut front runner for the honor of starting the All-Star Game. 

As I wrote last week, ERA is not the best stat to judge a pitcher, but the baseball hierarchy hasn't really caught onto that yet. So here are the ERA leaders of the National League. 

Based on the ERA rankings of the league, along with a few other factors, I think there are 5 realistic candidates to start the All-Star Game:

1. Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has to be considered the front-runner at this point. Excluding Kershaw, he leads the National League in strikeouts and has the lowest ERA. He is also 2nd among non-Kershaw pitchers in innings pitched.
2. Jake Arrieta. Arrieta is widely considered to be the second-best pitcher in the National League, which is a sentiment that I do not agree with. He has the ERA and the strikeouts, but he has pitched 5.1 innings or less in 5 of his last 8 starts. That is not how an elite pitcher is supposed to perform. His reputation earns him a chance, but he is not deserving.
3. Noah Syndergaard. The young 23 year-old has taken the league by storm in his 1st full season in the major leagues. While his numbers are slightly inferior to Bumgarner's and Arrieta's, he has a few factors working in his favor. For one, he has the sex appeal that would likely lead to higher television ratings. Also signisifxant is the fact that his manager, Terry Collins, is the one making the decision. Nepotism might benefit him here.
4. Johnny Cueto. Cueto is tied for the league lead in wins and also leads the league in innings pitched. However, it would be tough to justify giving him the nod over his teammate, Bumgarner.
5. Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz is the dark-horse here. He is having a fine season, but his numbers are obviously inferior to the guys listed above. However, Pomeranz pitches for the San Diego Padres, who happen to be hosting the All Star Game this year. It would not be unprecedented for the starting pitcher to be chosen due to the game being played in his home ballpark. As recently as 2013, Matt Harvey was chosen to start the game when it was played at Citi Field, despite the fact that he did not have the best numbers. 

In terms of numbers, the choice is clearly Bumgarner. However, I would not be surprised at all to see Syndergaard chosen by his own manager, especially when you include the fact that he would likely boost ratings. Personally, I'm rooting for Pomeranz, who has had an unremarkable career before breaking out this year.