Checking in on Conforto

About a month ago, I wrote about how the Mets would be wise to send down their struggling young star, Michael Conforto, to the minor leagues. Apparently, the Mets are an avid reader of my blog, as they optioned Conforto to AAA Las Vegas on June 25.

Before being sent down, Conforto was in the midst of an unbelievably bad slump, hitting just .130 from May 1 to June 25. This was a far cry from the superstar potential that he flashed in late 2015 and in April of 2016.

Since being sent down, Conforto has appeared in 13 games for the Las Vegas 51s. In 57 at bats, he is hitting .340/.411/.431 with 3 home runs. These are certainly good numbers, but they must be looked at with the caveat that Las Vegas is a very friendly hitting environment that tends to produce inflated offensive numbers. Players that put up huge numbers in Las Vegas don't necessarily succeed when they get up to the major leagues. Look no further than Ty Kelly this year. Kelly has hit an absurd .359 in Las Vegas this year. However, when he got called up to the Mets, he hit only .148.


With the Mets offense continuing to struggle, there are already calls to bring Conforto back to the major leagues. However, I think that would be a disastrous move by the Mets. Despite his struggles this year, Conforto is still a major part of the team's future, and the team must be patient with him. Conforto needs more than 57 in the minor leagues to fix the problems that popped up in May and June.

The goal here is for Conforto to be called up to the majors permanently. As much as the team needs his help in the short term, they need to make absolutely sure that the issues that were plaguing him this year never pop up again. In Conforto's defense, he seems to have have corrected these issues in AAA so far.

The biggest problem with Conforto this year was that he seemed to completely abandon the plate discipline that made him so successful early in his career. For example, during his brutal slump this year, Conforto struck out 48 times while walking only 13 times. He's been doing much better in this department so far in Las Vegas, walking 6 times as opposed to only 13 strikeouts.

Another major problem this year was that Conforto was pulling everything he was seeing during his slump. This resulted in teams playing defensive shifts on him on the right side of the field, making it nearly impossible for him to get a hit. As a left-handed hitter, Conforto would find much more success if he spread the ball around the field, especially if he could hit balls to left field consistently. This would allow defenses to play him more honestly, which would hopefully result in more hits. Conforto has shown the ability to do this in the past, and apparently has been doing so in Las Vegas.

According to Las Vegas manager Wally Backman, Conforto has been using the whole field with consistency recently. He referenced a home run that Conforto hit on Saturday that went to the opposite field. Here is a video of the home run:

This is a very good sign, as opposite field power is what made Conforto such a valuable commodity in the first place.

While it is clear that Conforto is doing everything he needs to do in Las Vegas, the fact of the matter is that 2 weeks in the minor leagues is not enough time to earn a promotion back to the major leagues. It is easy to forget how bad Conforto looked for the Mets this year, and I don't think the issues that plagued him can be fixed in 2 weeks.

Conforto needs more time in the minors to make sure that his next call to the major leagues will be his last call to the major leagues. Conforto's future is still as bright as it was 3 months ago, but the Mets cannot afford to call him up before he's ready and shatter his confidence again. 

Despite the fact that fans and the media are already talking about promoting him, I don't the promotion of Conforto should even be considered until August 1.By then, he will have about 6 weeks in the minor leagues and hopefully would have completed the necessary adjustments to make him a successful major leaguer again, Although the Mets need more offense right now, it is more important to make sure that Michael Conforto is completely fixed. This is not a time for half measures. 

What Should the Mets do With Michael Conforto?

On November 1st, 2015, during Game 4 of the World Series,  Michael Conforto became the youngest player (22 years old) since 1996 to hit two home runs in a World Series game. He became the youngest left-handed hitter to accomplish that feat since Tony Kubek in 1957. On national television, Conforto showed the country what Mets fans had known for months: he was one of the best younger hitters in baseball. That nigh capped off a spectacular rookie season for Conforto, where he hit .270/.335/.451 with 9 home runs and 26 runs batted in despite only playing in 56 games. He did all of this despite being only 22, and being only a year removed from playing college baseball. Baseball writers all around the country were calling him a future star, if he wasn't one already.

Fast forward to May 1st, 2016, when Conforto had just come off a dominant month of April. In 74 at-bats, Conforo batted .365/.442/.676, with four home runs, 18 runs batted in, and 9 walks. Very impressive numbers for any player, especially one in his first full major league season. He was so good. he was in the conversation to be starting in the All-Star game in July. After starting the season batting 6th in the batting order, he had been moved up to 3rd (where the best hitter usually bats). He was talked about as not only the best player on the Mets, but possibly as one of the best players in the National League. The question was no longer whether or not he would be a great player, the question was how great of a player he was going to be.

Fast forward one more time to today, June 14th. Conforto is now batting .233/.304/.451. Over the last 6 weeks, he has been one of the worst hitters in baseball. For the month of May, he hit an anemic .169/.242/.349 with only 4 runs batted in. So far in the month of June, he's doing even worse, hitting .111/.154/.229, and has already struck out 13 times. Simply put: Conforto has gone from being very, very good to being very,very bad. His poor play has contributed to the Mets scoring the 3rd fewest runs in baseball, despite having one of the best pitching staffs in the league, Conforto's struggles has put the Mets in a very difficult situation. At 23 years old, Conforto has not simply lost his ability to play baseball. However, he has been struggling for a long enough period where it is time for the Mets and their fans to be worried.

The question now is what the Mets are going to do with Conforto. They essentially only have two options. They could choose to continue to play him everyday and hope that he regains his form or they could choose to send him to their AAA minor league team in Las Vegas, where he could work on improving while being away from the constant scrutiny of the New York media.

It is easy to rationalize both options that the Mets are weighing right now. It would be a very difficult decision to send Conforto to the minor leagues, as it would surely cause embarrassment to a player who 6 weeks ago was considered to be one of the best young players in the league. There is also no doubt that the Mets need Conforto in the starting lineup. Despite having arguably the best pitching staff in baseball, the Mets have a record of only 34-28.The Mets have scored the 3rd fewest runs in baseball and have the 2nd-least amount of hits in the league. This is mainly due to the team experiencing an uncommon amount of injuries, but the struggles of Conforto have only made the situation worse. It is argued by many that the Mets have no other option than to keep Conforto in the lineup every day and hope that he begins to improve, as the team cannot win without him.

While it is true that the Mets need Conforto to play well in order to win games consistently, the simple fact of the matter is that he is currently hurting the team more than he is helping. The best course of action for him and the team is for Conforto to go to the minor leagues to regain his confidence. Conforto has not just been struggling over the last few weeks, he's been absolutely horrendous. The Mets need to make sure that this slump does not turn into something that could alter his entire career. It is true that the Mets need Conforto to play well in order to win, but it has become clear that Conforto needs to be fixed in order to play well again. That fixing should occur in Las Vegas, where he would be away from the pressure of producing in New York City.

The Mets have had success with this method in the past. From 2010-2012, Ike Davis was a very good, young player for the Mets. Yet in 2013, Davis was in an almost identical situation as Conforto. Despite being a previously successful player, Davis started 2013 by batting .160 in April and .165 in May. His struggles forced the team to send him down to Las Vegas, where he hit .293 with 7 home runs in 21 games. After playing well in Las Vegas, he was called back up by the Mets and played very well, hitting .267 for the rest of the season with a 152 wRC+ (which means that he produced 52% better than the average MLB 1st baseman). 

Sending Ike Davis down to the minor leagues helped him return to being a good major league player, there is no reason why the same thing should not happen to Conforto. Although sending him down would be a difficult decision to make, it is also the right decision to make. Sending him down now would hopefully allow him to return in a few weeks, preferably as his old, confident self. The Mets want to win games this year, and they also want Conforto to have a long and successful career for them. The best course of action to make sure that happens is to send Conforto to the minor leagues. Its whats best for him and whats best for the team.